Sunday, September 13, 2015

Book Review: Alan Greenspan's The Age of Turbulence- Adventure in a new World

Having just finished Alan Greenspan's The Age of Turbulence, I find myself far better off. His story briefly describes his youth before jumping right into his career both in the private and public sectors. An early surprise was his emphasis and noted admiration for President Ford. He portrays Ford as an all around normal political figure who worked to do what was right and not politically advantageous for himself. An example of this is how Ford pardoning Nixon got the country away from the wound and towards healing. Greenspan viewed Nixon as intelligent, yet, both cynical and paranoid(how much of this is hindsight bias... how knows). Greenspan, every the libertarian, only remarks that he went back to New York when Carter became president and devotes no time to him as a president. His discussion of subsequent Presidents, Reagan/Bush Sr/Clinton/Bush Jr all provide interesting character references and insights. The most interesting relationships come from Bush Sr and Clinton. Bush Sr trying to influence
the Fed to keep his job (Greenspan admits, he probably cost Bush his job) and Clinton who on the exact opposite hand balances the budge and leaves Greenspan relatively alone. Greenspan admires Clinton for his intelligence and ability to balance the budget. Balancing the budget comes up throughout as a word of caution.
Greenspan makes himself out to be the humble economist who never thought he would be head of the Fed. Yet, his time as Fed Chairman and political clout begs to differ. His interactions with the Presidents highlight his concern for the continued autonomy of the Fed.
Quote I found enlightening: "They (Republicans) swapped principle for power. They ended up with neither"(244). His own disenfranchisement with the Republican Party mirrors the conversation surrounding much of today's debates about career politicians in both parties.
His next section provides a brief overview of economic thought from Adam Smith to Modern Day. Specifically highlighting Progressive Ideology and Communism.
He then turns to Global Affairs surrounding economic growth focusing on: 1)The extent of Competition 2)Openness of an economy 3)Property Rights. The Global Economies comprise the G20 and only provide the briefest generalizations.
He ends with a forecast that in my opinion is already far off the money. Not that anyone else would have seen such a steep decline in oil reserves, the emergence of deflation, and a flop in China. As always, the past is no indication of the future and many an investment vehicle missed the off ramp on this economic highway recently.
The book provides insightful historical analysis, interesting measures & articles that I plan to subsequently read, & economic and political theory to mull over. The analogy of a river to describe the extremes of capitalism and communism made perfect sense in my mind and hope to continue reflecting where the optimum point in that line lies personally.
My only criticism is that unlike his later book, The Map & the Territory, this book does not make use of charts or mathematical equations. Nor does he really discuss the most recent recession and what shortcomings on his part caused it. I personally do not blame Greenspan for the recession. Only a handful of people saw it coming(law of averages) but it would have been interesting to get his opinion. I did not know what this book would hold, but am happy I have read it. Alan Greenspan clearly stands a giant in the economic, political, & global community. I have not had the pleasure to listen to him speak and wonder how he compares with his successor Bernanke(who to me embodies the stereotypical economic professor). This book by the 13th Chairman of the Federal Reserve is a must read for any student who wants to understand how our economy is shaped by the Fed, Government, or almighty Invisible Hand.

No comments:

Post a Comment